John Butler

Where did all the jobs go?

Recent data revisions suggest the US economy is weaker than previously assumed. Yet it has been carrying the rest of the world. If government spending cuts tip the US into recession, global stock markets will be in for a rude shock. Fortunately, defensive investors have some options.

Has the Bank of England solved the “productivity puzzle”?

Someone at the Bank of England appears to be reading Fortune & Freedom. That someone might even be Governor Andrew Bailey. In recent comments he blamed the growing public sector for low productivity. We have been doing so for years.

Invest in what actually works

Labour’s serial flip-flopping on net zero is a distraction. Investors should look through the noise and focus on what actually works. That’s traditional energy, and it is currently trading at a discount to the market overall.

Picks, shovels and profits

There has been a scramble for physical gold of late but investors have other options than hoarding of the metal. Miners are trading at historically low valuations. Royalties companies are also worth considering.

When the music stops

The game of musical chairs can be a useful metaphor for financial market dynamics, in particular crises. But does it apply to gold, a non-financial asset?

Vice, vice (investing) baby!

Although some may find it distasteful, companies servicing human vices can provide a profitable and defensive way to invest. Right here in the UK there are some of the world leaders when it comes to profiting from the rather less exemplary aspects of human nature.

Watching your weightings

Highly cyclical sectors have come to dominate stock market cap in recent years, changing the risk characteristics of the market overall. This is particularly true of the US, which is now more dominated by cyclicals than ever.

The Trump recession

President Trump has a reputation as a pro-growth president. But when pro-growth Reagan entered office the economy fell into a recession. The stock market fell too, reaching its lowest valuation for decades. Might history repeat?

Going for growth: creative destruction in the 21st century

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves says she wants to get growth going. She should do as Schumpeter says and Argentine President Milei does.

“Don’t mention the (trade) war!”

The upcoming German elections may further raise the risk of a US-EU trade war. The UK is also at risk. A general Atlantic trade war would be horrific for the economy but it can be avoided if common sense prevails.

Might Labour plug the “black hole” with “black gold”?

The bad news for Labour has been coming hard and fast ever since they presented their first budget last October. Growth is down and borrowing costs up. In a desperate scramble to get the economy going, Labour might surprise even themselves…

Show me the money!

Cash is king. There are many factors to consider when valuing a company. But the ability to generate cash is one of the most important, especially when the company in question is relatively immature or has recently restructured in some way.

The golden ratio?

In today’s issue: Investors have a habit of chasing returns The danger is they overpay for earnings That can be avoided by using the golden…

The ultimate defensive asset

Precious metals stand apart from financial assets They’re not at risk of devaluation or default All defensive portfolios should have an allocation The investment mainstream…

The recession-proof portfolio

In today’s issue: Investors should get defensive, right now Get out of tech, banks and consumer discretionary sectors Go for diversification and dividends Yesterday I…

Rotate within the market, not out

In today’s issue: Should defensive investors flee into cash? No Bonds? No They should rotate into basic industries and dividends Yesterday I wrote about how…

When the bond market speaks, investors must listen

Interest rates are the universal point of reference for valuing all financial assets. But they are also part of a transmission mechanism that, via credit spreads, can cause financial crises.

Labour’s budget boondoggle

Labour’s “trick-or-treat” Halloween budget may have been a treat for public sector workers, but it’s shaping up to be a trick for everyone else. Financial markets have responded with scepticism – bond yields are climbing, and the pound is sliding.

Gold in 2025 and beyond

Prominent gold commentator and member of The Fleet Street Letter’s Global Intelligence Network Alasdair Macleod shared his 2025 outlook at a private event in London late last year. His presentation is available to view at the link inside…

How the Green Grinch stole Christmas

The Green Grinch attempted to steal Europe’s Christmas this year with near-zero wind and solar power generation. Soaring prices were the result. Germany’s government has now collapsed and France has yet another prime minister with only a weak mandate. Is more mayhem in store for 2025?