From Yahoo! Finance:
Big banks are offering the latest view of how their customers are faring amid President Trump’s tariff turmoil, and it’s not all bad — at least for now.
“The message has really been that the sky is not falling,” Saul Martinez, a bank analyst for HSBC, told Yahoo Finance on Tuesday.
Perhaps the banks have read our commentary.
We explained last week that we suspected the markets were over-reacting to the tariffs. All President Trump wants is a ‘win’. He doesn’t care if it’s the biggest win from tariffs, just enough to show that he’s won the negotiation.
Of course, many of his advisers would probably like a bigger win. But we figure Trump isn’t that gung-ho about it (we know, an odd thing to say about Trump, but it’s true). He’ll talk up how big the tariffs will be but will then wind it back.
Just as he did this week when he announced tariff exemptions for computers and smartphones.
Trump believes in tariffs. He’s advocated for them for decades. So he’s not about to suddenly reject them. That won’t happen. But the degree to which they will be imposed on the rest of the world is negotiable.
And now it looks as though even the Chinese are willing to talk. Again, from Yahoo! Finance:
China expressed openness to trade talks with the US on Wednesday, but under certain conditions. Beijing wants the Trump administration to show more “respect” and name a point person, as focus grows on the trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
Remember that this is the same China that just over a week ago the mainstream press said was cosying up to the European Union. Because those two economies were more than a match for Trump’s America.
Not so, it seems.
We don’t know for sure exactly how this will turn out… or even which path it will take to get there. But we do have a hunch. That hunch is while the markets are volatile right now, and investors are on edge, a year from now, this could turn out to be the beginning of one of the biggest economic booms in history.
No political leader has taken the approach that Trump has now. But that’s because he’s a ‘boom and bust’ personality – look at his business history. Everyone is looking at this as though it will be a bust.
But the way this is trending it feels more like the beginning of a boom to us. We guess we’ll know for sure this time next year.
It’s going to be an exciting 12 months.
Links to recent content below.
Hope you’re having a great weekend.
Cheers,
Kris Sayce
Publisher, Southbank Investment Research
What you may have missed…
I Was Wrong About Tesla
“He sells cars.” Peter Navarro, Trump’s top trade advisor, dismissed Elon Musk on Fox News. The message? Stay in your lane, Space Cowboy. In case you missed it: Musk wants “zero tariff zones” and global flow. Navarro wants a tariff wall and a trade sword. Yes, Navarro’s right—Musk is protecting his own interests. But here’s where he’s wrong: Elon Musk isn’t a car salesman. Read more here…
Trump and The Fate of The Dollar
What is the Mar-a-Lago Accord? And what would a Mar-a-Lago Accord mean for the value of the U.S. dollar? We begin our analysis with the name itself. Mar-a-Lago Accord is an echo of the three major international currency accords since the original Bretton Woods Agreements reached in 1944. Read more here…
Gold’s Historic Rally
Even casual observers know that gold is on a tear. In March 2025, the dollar price of gold broke through the $3,000 per ounce mark, recently hitting $3,060. That marks an 85% rally from its lows of $1,650 in late 2022 and it could just be the beginning. Read more here…
What I Learned By Losing Everything — Twice
Southbank Investment Research invited me to share the same strategies I’ve been giving my U.S. readers—on how to navigate and thrive in today’s chaotic markets. And that’s something I don’t take lightly—because I’ve lived through chaos myself. I’ve suffered two major financial setbacks in my life… And I’m determined to pass on the lessons I learned from them — giving you the tools you need to achieve lasting peace of mind. Read more here…
The Asymmetric Gold Trade
Gold has reached a new all-time high, surpassing $3,100 per ounce. I anticipate it could climb even higher in the near future. It’s interesting to see the dollar strong and the dollar price of gold strong at the same time. Normally a strong dollar means a lower dollar price for gold. You get more gold for your dollar. That’s not happening. Read more here…
