In today’s issue:
- Inflation is back, although it never really left
- While it can benefit specific groups, it leaves most poorer
- What should investors do about it?
You might have noticed that prices in the shops are still going up, if less rapidly than a couple of years back.
But up is still up, unlike most salaries but very much like taxes.
Speaking of taxes, which can be of benefit to narrow groups such as government employees, QUANGOs and the like, inflation can be of benefit too. Those first in line for the new money – including the financial institutions that lend it into existence – can use it as a means to acquire assets on the cheap, before prices rise for the general public.
To the extent that inflation can ever be “good”, that’s about it.
Inflation is bad for everyone else. It also presents businesses with a complex set of problems. For some, input costs may rise, but will they be able to pass those along to customers or not? It becomes a guessing game, increasing uncertainty and complicating planning.
Other businesses might find there is more demand for their products or services. Rather than merely raise prices, they might respond with increased production too.
But what if that surge in demand is just an illusion – driven not by real growth, but by consumers spending more simply because of inflation itself? More money sloshing around makes some flush with extra cash, at least temporarily, before the general inflation rolls through and soaks it up.
The fact is, inflation is a complex, coincident phenomenon. You can’t possibly know to what extent rising costs or demand are a function of real supply and demand factors, or merely the effect of more freshly printed money sloshing its way through the economy unpredictably.
When the inflation flood ebbs, however, most businesses will find that they did not gauge things correctly. Some will have over- or underestimated its impact on input costs, some on final demand, some on both. Profitability will have suffered.
Understood in this way, inflation imposes real costs on businesses: the cost of uncertainty, the inability to plan, the impossibility of optimising operations.
That which is a cost of doing business is a cost on the entire economy. A real cost, not just the inflation itself. The result is a lower sustainable rate of growth.
At particularly high rates of inflation, sustainable growth goes into outright reverse. It makes most everyone poorer. Just ask an Argentinian or Zimbabwean.
That’s just plain ugly.
Thus, it should be no surprise that governments routinely deny that they have anything to do with inflation. They’ll blame greedy businesses, foreign governments they don’t like, the weather, shortages, even Taylor Swift.
It sometimes takes a while, but the public eventually come round and realise that politicians indeed had something to do with it. Inflation then becomes a political issue, one capable of deciding elections.
The huge wave of populism still sweeping across Europe, North America and Argentina is in part an inflationary phenomenon. Here in the UK, the government likes to call this the “cost of living crisis”.
While inflation presents challenges, there are some specific things that investors can do to help protect themselves from it. They can invest in those industries that have strong “pricing power”, meaning they can easily pass along rising input costs to customers. Energy comes to mind. Or chemicals. Or basic manufactures.
Companies in essential industries that are mature and highly cash-generative are not going to suffer much just because a wave of inflation rolls through. Many of those companies will have experienced such waves before. They’ll have a better chance than most of protecting profitability throughout.
Until next time,
John Butler
Investment Director, Fortune & Freedom
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Crackpot Economics
Bill Bonner, writing from Baltimore, Maryland
‘Det som göms i snö, kommer fram vid tö.’
(What is hidden in snow, is revealed at thaw.)
– Old Norse Saying
There are many issues that get people riled up. And many are the dimwit policies pushed by politicians and elite groups. Personal pronouns, passing out condoms, men competing as women in sports, ‘annexing’ Greenland, forced vaccinations… and here’s a new one. The White House:
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, it is hereby ordered: English is declared as the official language of the United States. A nationally designated language is at the core of a unified and cohesive society, and the United States is strengthened by a citizenry that can freely exchange ideas in one shared language.
Really?
Switzerland has five languages. India has 122 major languages and 1,599 minor ones. Why can’t people speak whatever language they want? And in the US today, almost everyone speaks English. Would you say it was a ‘unified and cohesive society?’
Typical of the world improvers, they want to force everyone into a single formula.
But it’s clearly unfair to give native born English speakers an advantage. Why not level the playing field by designating some language no one speaks as the official tongue? We recommend Old Norse.
Learning Old Norse would connect us to our first European immigrants… and it would stimulate both the economy and the tired, complacent minds of its citizens. Besides, it would be useful to know what those crafty Greenlanders are saying after we take it over.*
But while these fringe issues grab headline attention, in themselves they don’t represent existential threats. Whether Americans speak English or Estonian… the US would still be on its way to $50 trillion of debt before the end of Trump’s second term.
Deficits add up. Debt needs to be refinanced. And the larger the cost of servicing past spending, the less is available for the present. This is inherently and obviously a crackpot way to run a nation. It guarantees chaos, inflation, defaults and poverty. But it is the direction taken by every administration since the days of Jimmy Carter.
The first four months of this fiscal year added another $830 billion in debt. At that rate, even with Elon looking for nickels under the seat cushions, the debt will be like water gushing up out of sewers and storm drains… malodorous and hard to clean up. At 5% interest (which could go up), that would be an interest burden of $2.5 trillion per year… or about half of all federal tax receipts. Insider Investor adds:
The billionaire investor [Ray Dalio] said “debt accumulates like plaque” in a financial system, and that poses a “problem” for governments as interest payments eat up more and more of their budgets.
Dalio compared himself to a doctor telling a patient about a plaque buildup: “You’re in a high risk of this heart attack, essentially, and now what are you going to do about it?”
“Don’t wait for this to happen and then try to make it better,” Dalio said.
The federal government spent about $6.75 trillion last fiscal year but only collected $4.92 trillion in revenue, meaning it ran a $1.8 trillion deficit, according to the Treasury’s website. The national debt has more than tripled since 2000 to an estimated $36.2 trillion, the website showed.
The only member of the House to show any real concern about this is the steadfast Thomas Massie of Kentucky. He was the only Republican to vote ‘no’ on the latest Republican spendfest bill.
Massie explained his vote to his constituents on X by writing: “The GOP Budget Resolution that passed the House this week increases the debt limit from $36 trillion to $40 trillion, and spends enough $ to increase the debt from $36 trillion to $56 trillion over the next 10 years. But yay for tax cuts!”
Maybe Massie was being sarcastic. Because there is no real tax cut in the measure passed last week. What there is a slick tax scam, about which, more tomorrow.
For now, it is hidden under the snow… that is, under near record high spending… record high debt… and record high stock prices. It takes time for snow to melt. Inflation emerges gradually, poking up through the frost like crocuses in early spring.
Later, we see the old beer cans and wind-blown pizza boxes.
Verðið á varðbergi. (Stay tuned.)
Regards,
Bill Bonner
Contributing Editor, Fortune & Freedom
*Language is a sensitive topic. Canada wisely decided to allow both French and English as official languages. But Ukraine did not. After the US-sponsored coup in 2014, it eliminated Russian as an official language… which proved to be one of the opening shots of the war.
For more from Bill Bonner, visit www.bonnerprivateresearch.com
