The City

A final warning

Public sector finances are deteriorating rapidly. But what about the private sector? A new Bank of England lending facility may provide some clues. Concerned investors shouldn’t wait for confirmation but take action now.

The geography of inflation

Prices rise and fall for a great many reasons but there is only one cause of a general, ongoing rise in prices: an increase in the money supply. A look at the geography of Renaissance Europe’s great inflation illustrates the point.

Germany moves right. Sort of.

Germany will shift to the right following this weekend’s elections. By how much depends on what coalition the leading CDU is willing or able to form. Any new coalition may be as unstable as the last.

Has the Bank of England solved the “productivity puzzle”?

Someone at the Bank of England appears to be reading Fortune & Freedom. That someone might even be Governor Andrew Bailey. In recent comments he blamed the growing public sector for low productivity. We have been doing so for years.

What will be Labour’s Liz Truss Moment?

A lot can happen in a month of politics. And Labour are having a rough time. There’s even a petition for an election. But what could be their undoing?

Bonds will sink banks and pension funds again eventually

Not many financial panics play out in slow motion. Especially when they involve banks and pension funds. But the vast losses on bonds that caused both persist.

A global revenue bargain?

US stock markets went from expensive to even more so following Trump’s victory. But is this justified? Regardless, the UK stock market is a relative bargain by comparison.

Why Rachel Reeves’ taxes don’t matter

By the time you read this, Chancellor Rachel Reeves will have “handed down” her budget. An ironic choice of words given that it’s taxes that are dominating headlines.

Labour’s “trick-or-treat” budget

Both tax rises and spending cuts are likely The stock market is unlikely to care Global developments remain more important Labour will present their “trick-or-treat”…

Lies, damn lies and (economic) statistics, part 2

Economic data must be adjusted for inflation in order to give a real picture of the economy. If inflation is mismeasured, so is everything else. What appears to be economic growth could actually be stagnation. How confident should we be that inflation data are accurate?

Lies, damn lies and (economic) statistics, part 1

These past few weeks have brought some important economic data that continue to support my view that the US and by extension global economy has weakened over the past year. And it might be even weaker than official economic data suggest.

You can’t stop it. You can’t avoid it. You can only prepare…

AI is about to boost the global economy by $200 trillion. That’s 85 times bigger than crypto… four times the size of the S&P 500… and almost double the entire global economy…

An evening in Covent Garden

Last week, Southbank Investment Research held an exclusive event for members in the heart of London’s West End. There were four guest speakers in attendance in the capacity-crowd room. Topics included the outlook for the economy, government policy and what investors can do to protect themselves from both.

The SMR revolution is not about nuclear, it is about bite-size electricity

No doubt you’ve noticed the flurry of nuclear power news over the past two weeks. Especially when it comes to Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). But why now?

Time for a Trial of the Pyx for Andrew Bailey

For 850 years, the UK has held a ceremony to check whether the currency of the realm has been debased. It’s called a Trial of the Pyx. And it’s time for one now.

The Federal Reserve cuts rates. So what?

US interest rates are finally headed lower It is probably too late to prevent a recession Do financial markets reflect reality? Long anticipated by the…

The gunpowder that blew up Liz Truss is still there

In 2022 and 2023, vast losses in the bond market blew up US banks, UK pension funds and the UK government. 2024 has been quiet. But the losses are still there.

A British champion hiding in plain sight

The rise and fall of Intel has valuable lessons for investors about the lifecycle of business and the innovator’s dilemma. But who is replacing it at the helm of the most important industry in the world?

The stock market smells trouble ahead

Industrial commodity prices have been declining Cyclical stocks have been underperforming Signs are growing the global economy is slipping into recession As a relatively small,…

Natural things have limits. We’re at one.

Tomiko Itooka is the world’s oldest living person. She is only 116 years old. Not 300 years old. Financial indicators, such as debt and market prices, have their limits too.