Editor’s note: While this dispatch focuses on the spectacle of American politics, UK investors would be wise to read between the lines. The erosion of constitutional limits, the merging of theatre and policy, and the centralisation of power aren’t uniquely American problems. When leaders rule by impulse—and institutions fail to restrain them—markets notice.
As we navigate our own political shifts here in the UK, from rising Reform polling to central bank entrenchment, remember: the investment climate is shaped as much by power plays as by profits. And when politics becomes performance, the cost is often paid in your portfolio.
‘While tyranny may be a delightful spot, there is no way back from it.’
–Solon
When we left you last week…Israel had just attacked Iran. Oil prices were going up. The US stock market was a sea of red. The US military had been deployed in LA. A US senator had been roughly handled in California. And down in Florida, the authorities promised to ramp up the violence. Latin Times:
Florida Sheriff Wayne Ivey, who threatened to kill anti-ICE protesters “graveyard dead,” has a history of corruption, racial profiling and bribery in local campaigns, despite calling himself a “constitutional sheriff.”
Ivey issued the threat during a press conference on Thursday. His warning drew cheers from MAGA supporters and widespread condemnation from others. The viral moment also resurfaced his history of corruption, dating back to 2018.
But come Saturday, and Donald Trump got the parade of his dreams.
The Washington Post:
President Donald Trump got the parade he always wanted Saturday — a grand demonstration of military might and patriotic zeal that took place along the National Mall on his 79th birthday.
But it fell on an overcast day that capped one of the most tumultuous weeks of his presidency — with troops deployed on the streets of the country’s second largest city, missiles launched in the Middle East and, less than 24 hours before the parade began, a targeted killing of a state lawmaker and her spouse in Minnesota.
The parade and counterdemonstrations were largely peaceful, which must have disappointed a lot of people. Many viewers were hoping for a showdown. Some even expected a ‘Tiananmen Moment’ when a protester would run onto the street and stand in front of a tank, daring it to run him down. Mike Benz:
The CIA’s riot guide from 1983 calls for agitators to “create a martyr for the cause” by leading the demonstrators into a confrontation with authorities” to “provoke riots or shootings which may cause the death” of a protester, and then use that death for bigger riots.
We can imagine the cameras turning to Mr. Trump. Presumably, he would stand and give a thumbs up or thumbs down. Either way, the drama would capture the world’s attention, proving that the US had become as decadent as ancient Rome…or that it wasn’t so bad after all, depending on which way it went.
But nothing of the sort happened. By contrast, the parade seemed a little dull. The only casualty mentioned in the press was neither part of the parade nor part of the resistance to it; he was simply a bystander shot by accident by what appears to have been a trigger-happy vigilante ‘peace-keeper.’
It didn’t help that all of the president’s agenda — save the parade — has been found to be illegal, ineffective, or still not implemented. Each week brings new crackpot initiatives. And then, last week, US courts had ruled that once again, President Trump had exceeded his Constitutional authority by taking command of the California national guard.
‘Unique,’ or ‘unprecedented,’ are common adjectives to describe the Trump administration. Many people say we are in ‘uncharted territory.’ But they need to pull out the old maps. Every shoal and reef is well-marked. But we run into them anyway.
Aristotle favored monarchs, aristocrats and constitutional republics. When they degenerated, he said, it led to tyrants, oligarchies and democracies. He believed that people turned to tyrants when the elites became contemptuous of them and the government became largely dysfunctional. But being a ‘tyrant’ was not necessarily a bad thing. There were bad tyrants, like Draco, from whom we get the word ‘draconian.’ And there were good tyrants, like Solon.
Donald Trump fits the ‘tyrant’ description. He is a low-brow, ‘Big Man’ leader, elected to ‘Make America Great Again,’ which meant turning his back on the New York Times, Harvard, the UN and other bastions of elite power.
Opinions still differ on whether Trump is a good tyrant…a bad tyrant…or even a tyrant at all. The masses were delighted when he dropped his pants and made a rude gesture toward his own ample bottom. It gave Trump Derangement Syndrome sufferers the heebie jeebies. And the MAGA crowd loved it. If he had stopped there, his administration probably would have been a jolly success.
But instead of sticking to the showmanship of the TV wraslin’ genre, or the stage-managed reality of The Apprentice, Mr. Trump insisted on imposing his own agenda on the real world. Bigger deficits, seizing Greenland, reciprocal tariffs, more money for the Pentagon, large-scale deportations, DOGE — a mixture of flop and farce, sturm und drang…
But no reason for a marching band.
Regards,
Bill Bonner
Contributing Editor, Investor’s Daily
P.S. When politics becomes performance, power gets concentrated—and fortunes shift quickly. Executive Order 14179 is a prime example. While the world watches parades and protests, a $15.7 trillion AI wealth window has quietly opened—set to slam shut on June 25th. Don’t let the theatrics distract you. This is your chance to act before the real story moves past the headlines. See what it means for your money.
