John Butler

Oh, what might have been!

All choices we make are trade-offs of one sort or another. Public or private, money spent on one thing is money not spent on another. As the government prepares to make large spending cuts, it is worth asking the question of whether previous spending could have been better spent elsewhere.

Begun, the trade wars have

The Trump tariffs are here. They’re going to make global business more expensive, cause some degree of corporate distress and even bankruptcy. Investors should take appropriate action now.

A US recession has begun

In today’s issue: The US may already be in recession Trump’s policy set may make it worse The UK is at even greater risk It’s…

A final warning

Public sector finances are deteriorating rapidly. But what about the private sector? A new Bank of England lending facility may provide some clues. Concerned investors shouldn’t wait for confirmation but take action now.

Reeves’ Spring Confession

In today’s issue: Government finances are deteriorating Reeves will seek to deflect blame in today’s statement Guess who she’ll blame instead? Today, Chancellor Rachel Reeves…

Britain’s South Sea Windfall

As the 43rd anniversary of the Argentine invasion of the Falkland Islands approaches, history may again be in the making. This time, peacefully, Britain and Argentina might agree to develop the oil and gas resources in the regional territorial waters. If so, investors should get involved now.

The geography of inflation

Prices rise and fall for a great many reasons but there is only one cause of a general, ongoing rise in prices: an increase in the money supply. A look at the geography of Renaissance Europe’s great inflation illustrates the point.

Mind the gap

Banks were the best performing sector in the FTSE 100 over the past year, outpacing even tech. In my opinion, that was probably way overdone. 2025 may see them give that outperformance back, and possibly more. If history is a guide, they likely will.

Don’t get carried out (on a stretcher)

For decades global stock markets have been driven in part by so-called carry trades. But these can reverse in spectacular fashion. A recent example was the “mini crash” of last August. Is another such reversal brewing?

A crude warning

Oil prices have declined to their lowest level in three years. Adjusting for inflation makes the real decline all the greater. Iron ore prices are soft too. These could be warnings of global recession. Recent stock market weakness might only be the beginning.

A time for choosing

Transatlantic disputes in trade and defence have escalated dramatically of late. Time is running out for Britain to find a way to leverage the “special relationship” with the US in a way that serves its national interest.

Götterdämmerung? Or Sicherheitswende?

Germany’s presumed next chancellor plans to issue a huge amount of new debt to fund military expansion. That’s likely to be not only expensive but inflationary. The best way to keep costs and inflation down would be for Germany to go nuclear.

Move over DOGE, here comes CORGI

Arguably Britain’s leading Elon Musk fan, founder of craft brewer BrewDog, James Watt, has launched a new initiative: CORGI. Conceived of as Britain’s counterpart to DOGE, it will seek out government inefficiencies, waste and fraud. Or at least it will try.

Inflation: the good, the bad and the ugly

Inflation has been ticking higher again of late ¬– but the truth is, it never really left. While inflation is a net negative for business profitability and economic growth, some industries are better able to deal with it than others. Investors should invest accordingly.

Anatomy of a crash, part 2

Yesterday, we took a look at a handful of historical stock market crashes, their similarities and differences. Today, we turn our attention to the present. Does the current market set-up suggest the risk of a crash is elevated?

Anatomy of a crash, part 1

Stock market crashes, although rare, are a fact of investing life. They may be different in their specific causes, but they do share similar characteristics. Let’s take a look at a few and see if there are any indications whether another may be imminent.

Find your way back: to gold

Trump has expressed his interest in returning the US to the gold standard, calling it a “wonderful” idea. But will he move things in this direction? If so, how? And what impact would that have on gold, foreign exchange and the financial markets?

What if the US revalues its gold?

There’s been much speculation of late that President Trump might issue an executive order to revalue the US Treasury’s gold stock to market. But why? And what effect might that have on gold prices and financial markets?

Germany moves right. Sort of.

Germany will shift to the right following this weekend’s elections. By how much depends on what coalition the leading CDU is willing or able to form. Any new coalition may be as unstable as the last.

More admirals than ships?

Following decades of downsizing, the Royal Navy now has more admirals than ships. This is just one example of Europe’s broader shortfall in military capability. But that may now be changing. Investors should take note.