In today’s Issue:

  • The only resource that matters more than weapons during war
  • Which US president is Trump mimicking now?
  • Iran is doing Trump’s dirty work for him

29 years ago, I slunk into school dressed as John Quincy Adams:

Source: Smithsonian

You might ask why a little German child with an Irish accent, going to school in England, would be dressed up as America’s sixth president.

Well, my new school was an American one. Strangely enough, the school’s name was The American School in Switzerland (TASIS), despite being in Thorpe, Surrey.

Each morning, the teacher would tell us to stand up, face the American flag, put our hands on our hearts, and recite the American pledge of allegiance.

And each time I would wonder what the hell a “legiance” was.

Things only escalated from there.

How I became President of the United States of America

One memorable week, we were each assigned an American president and had to give a speech to the class about their importance in American history.

As you can imagine, this was a mighty awkward prospect for a German going to an American school in England. But, as you’ll see, my teachers chose my president very carefully.

My overenthusiastic mother, fresh from me winning an award as the “best dressed pirate” in the school play, decided I should dress the part too. And so, I very reluctantly donned a 19th century outfit, including a wig (mop) on the big day and headed off to school.

My speech was a hit, and dressing up as your president became a tradition.

I learned a great deal about President John Quincy Adams by pretending to be him for a day. And promptly forgot most of it when we moved again.

But one thing always stuck with me: his belief that America should go “not abroad in search of monsters to destroy.”

At the time, I had no idea those “monsters” included the ancestors of both sides of my family.

As you can imagine, this pacifist foreign policy did not initially sit well with a young boy obsessed with Robin Hood and Peter Pan.

What purpose to life could there possibly be if not fighting monsters, preferably foreign?

Yet President J.Q. did a good job of explaining why foreign entanglements were a very bad idea indeed. Reading aloud his reasons to the class convinced me of the merits of avoiding forever wars. As did President Trump during his election campaign…

But Trump has proven himself as fickle as all other politicians. He’s started more wars than he promised to finish.

And that has radically changed what happens next all around the world.

Investors need to prepare for one of history’s biggest arms races.

Not just a military one, but for the only resource that matters more than arms during wartime.

Who is President Trump really?

In his most recent issue of Strategic Intelligence, our geopolitical strategist Jim Rickards uses the lens of different US presidents from history to understand what Trump is up to.

As ever, history is rhyming. The key question is which president’s foreign policy Trump is trying to emulate now.

Pick the right president, and you can predict what happens next by listening to the rhyme of history.

As Billy Joel put it, “We didn’t start the fire. It was always burning since the world has been subjected to American foreign policy.”

Given my primary school expertise, I can tell you Trump is definitely not following John Quincy Adams’ advice…

You’d have to sign up to Strategic Intelligence to find out who Jim Rickards says you should look up instead.

But I know what J.Q. would say about today’s wars.

We’ve been busy slaying monsters in places like Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, Venezuela, Iran, and more.

But there’s always another monster waiting to replace them. Sometimes a worse one.

Trump has been promoting monsters, not destroying them.

So, what is he up to?

The common denominator is oil and gas

Energy is known as the master resource. That’s because your supply of all other resources is defined by the amount of energy you can expend to get them.

Trump’s attacks on Venezuela and Iran were about gaining geopolitical control of the last major sources of oil and gas outside of US influence.

It may look like Iran has a firm hold on Trump. But given Iran is cutting off the oil and gas supply of Trump’s geopolitical rivals while the US is awash in oil and gas, you could also say Iran is doing Trump’s dirty work for him.

Trump wants Europe to rearm and produce its own energy. He wants to contract China’s access to cheap oil and gas. And he wants to ease sanctions on Russian energy.

Iran is doing it all for him by messing with the Strait of Hormuz.

Think of it as another Nord Stream pipeline attack. Who benefits from the chaos depends on which geopolitical aims you assign your various actors. And we can’t even agree on what outcomes would be good or bad, let alone what Trump really wants.

What we do know is that turmoil in energy markets is creating extraordinary opportunities in the energy market. If you can understand what Trump is up to, you can profit from how it’ll move the market next. More on that here.

Until next time,


Nick Hubble
Editor at Large, Investor’s Daily