Better than gold. Better than copper. Better than oil. One grain has the potential to be the best performing commodity in 2026.

According to the latest US Department of Agriculture data, the hard wheat crop will be the smallest in 69 years. The June update revised the entire wheat crop down from 1.4 billion bushels last month to just 1 billion bushels. And the export variety of the grain is well down.

Wheat prices don’t reflect that shortage… yet.

Hard red winter wheat (HRWW) is the main source of bread and exports. This harvest will be the smallest since 1958, primarily due to drought across America’s Great Plains.

According to Reuters:

Production of hard red winter wheat, the largest variety grown in the United States, was projected to fall to 497 million bushels, down from an outlook for 515 million last month and well below last year’s 804-million-bushel crop.

The quality of the harvest is poor as well.

Only 25% of the crop rates as “good to excellent.” That’s the lowest since 1986, according to Reuters’ reporting.

This means we could be looking at a jump in wheat prices.

Incidentally…

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Coal
Wool
North Sea Oil
Tin

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As you can see from the chart below, the wheat price is nowhere near recent highs.

Over, under, the cycle is turning in investor’s favour

Commodity prices tend to move in cycles. Oversupply leads to low prices. Undersupply leads to high prices.

We’re now firmly in the undersupply situation.

Competition for the available supply could well drive prices up.

That’s the opportunity for investors today.

But this isn’t an overnight 20% trade. This is a several month investment timeframe.

These kinds of opportunities happen in cyclical commodities. The trick is to buy when no one is talking about the trade. When the headlines scream about soaring wheat prices, it’s too late.

We want to buy wheat now and sell it when the price goes up. And make no mistake, this will happen. Wheat is like oil. It’s a commodity we all buy every day. It goes into nearly everything we eat, either directly or indirectly.

Livestock can substitute grains when one gets too expensive. But you can’t substitute soybeans in breads, rolls, flatbreads, noodles, pasta, crackers, cookies, cakes, pastries, cereal bars, and some other processed foods.

The reason wheat prices could soar is two-fold.

First, the main supplies of wheat come from the US and the Black Sea. The war in Ukraine is a material risk to Black Sea grain exports. And the other risk is weather.

The incoming super El Niño is a major weather phenomenon that could impact wheat crops around the world. Historically, these events bring dry conditions to wheat producers in Australia and Asia.

Reduced global supply at a time when US productions are at extreme lows could add upward pressure to the price.

The risk in this trade is that there is plenty of wheat on the market right now. The lack of wheat will hit later this fall. And that’s when I expect to see the price climb.

Good investing,

Matt Badialli
Co-Editor, Real Wealth Insider UK

PS If you missed yesterday’s Live YouTube event with Sam and Nick, watch the recording here. During the conversation, they give away a free report that contains the names of three stocks that they believe are good buys right now… and they explain how to access another eight reports they’ve prepared to help investors take back control of their future.