Stocks

Don’t get carried out (on a stretcher)

For decades global stock markets have been driven in part by so-called carry trades. But these can reverse in spectacular fashion. A recent example was the “mini crash” of last August. Is another such reversal brewing?

Anatomy of a crash, part 2

Yesterday, we took a look at a handful of historical stock market crashes, their similarities and differences. Today, we turn our attention to the present. Does the current market set-up suggest the risk of a crash is elevated?

Anatomy of a crash, part 1

Stock market crashes, although rare, are a fact of investing life. They may be different in their specific causes, but they do share similar characteristics. Let’s take a look at a few and see if there are any indications whether another may be imminent.

Everything woke turns to…

After the surge of Brexit and Donald Trump’s first election win, attitudes seemed to shift back towards the left. “Woke” was in, and so therefore was alternative energy. For any business that has one product can you blame it for wanting to diversify? But companies that successfully switch from one area of specialisation to another are few and far between.

Germany moves right. Sort of.

Germany will shift to the right following this weekend’s elections. By how much depends on what coalition the leading CDU is willing or able to form. Any new coalition may be as unstable as the last.

Is the UK stock market dying, and should you care?

What is to become of the UK stock market? If the headlines reflect reality, it doesn’t look good. Is it the end for the LSE – and what does this mean for investors?

Where did all the jobs go?

Recent data revisions suggest the US economy is weaker than previously assumed. Yet it has been carrying the rest of the world. If government spending cuts tip the US into recession, global stock markets will be in for a rude shock. Fortunately, defensive investors have some options.

Vice, vice (investing) baby!

Although some may find it distasteful, companies servicing human vices can provide a profitable and defensive way to invest. Right here in the UK there are some of the world leaders when it comes to profiting from the rather less exemplary aspects of human nature.

Watching your weightings

Highly cyclical sectors have come to dominate stock market cap in recent years, changing the risk characteristics of the market overall. This is particularly true of the US, which is now more dominated by cyclicals than ever.

The Trump recession

President Trump has a reputation as a pro-growth president. But when pro-growth Reagan entered office the economy fell into a recession. The stock market fell too, reaching its lowest valuation for decades. Might history repeat?

“Don’t mention the (trade) war!”

The upcoming German elections may further raise the risk of a US-EU trade war. The UK is also at risk. A general Atlantic trade war would be horrific for the economy but it can be avoided if common sense prevails.

Show me the money!

Cash is king. There are many factors to consider when valuing a company. But the ability to generate cash is one of the most important, especially when the company in question is relatively immature or has recently restructured in some way.

The golden ratio?

In today’s issue: Investors have a habit of chasing returns The danger is they overpay for earnings That can be avoided by using the golden…

Trump 2.0 – what happens next?

Catch up on the big stories from Fortune & Freedom this week in our Sunday rundown…

The recession-proof portfolio

In today’s issue: Investors should get defensive, right now Get out of tech, banks and consumer discretionary sectors Go for diversification and dividends Yesterday I…

Rotate within the market, not out

In today’s issue: Should defensive investors flee into cash? No Bonds? No They should rotate into basic industries and dividends Yesterday I wrote about how…

When the bond market speaks, investors must listen

Interest rates are the universal point of reference for valuing all financial assets. But they are also part of a transmission mechanism that, via credit spreads, can cause financial crises.

Nuclear power is no silver bullet

During the Christmas break, we’re showcasing some of our best Fortune & Freedom articles of 2024. In this interview, Dr Xiaolin Chen, head of International at ETF provider KraneShares, shares what investors can expect from China in 2025…

The recession of 2024

Last week we learned that the UK economy has contracted slightly for two months running. But a deeper look at the data shows that the private sector has been in recession all year. Will 2025 bring more of the same?

The anatomy of an anti-bubble

The war on woke, US exceptionalism, stock market opportunities and the ESG anti-bubble