Geopolitics

2025: The Year of the Chainsaw?

Last year Britain lurched to the left while much of Europe and North American did the opposite. But nowhere is the contrast with Britain greater than in Argentina, which has leapt from bureaucratic basket-case to capitalist dynamo during President Milei’s first year in power.

If it’s darkest before dawn, is it time to be optimistic?

Europe is in outright political chaos. But perhaps this just heralds change for the better? Is it time for investors to get optimistic about our future?

Only a crisis can save us now

In France, the voters turned against Macron. In Germany, they turned against the centrist Social Democrats. In the UK, both centre parties are in trouble.

Will Norway pull the plug on the UK?

Sweden and Norway pursued sensible energy policy. Unfortunately, they hooked their grid up to Germany and the UK. Now they’re paying the price, literally.

The biggest turnaround story since the Soviet Union disbanded

Some investors see in Argentina the kind of boom that took place in Eastern Europe after it was freed from the Soviet Union in 1991... or China in 1979.

How Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng will assassinate President Trump

President Trump had better watch his back. The same elite group of puppet masters that controlled financial markets for decades have diversified into politics.

Our predictions for a wayward 2025

It’s the time of year to start thinking about your New Year’s resolutions… and why they’ll fail. It’s no different for investing. What will 2025 bring?

God, climate change and the deficit on Thanksgiving

We had spent the day before Thanksgiving splitting firewood. All day, we loaded the logs — oak, locust, cherry, and poplar — onto the splitter. Once split, the fire logs were stacked in the barn.

Will the BRICS put up with more abuse, or divorce the dollar?

Each financial boom and bust sears a new piece of obscure finance jargon into our memory. And in 2025, we’ll be adding a new one to that list: BRICS.

Ten years of wars and inflation

On Friday 22 November, US debt hit a new record – $36 trillion. There was also this little news item last week – Reuters: “Putin says Ukraine war is going global”.

World Opium War III has begun

In today’s issue: Why did Trump justify tariffs with fentanyl? What is Opium War III? A dark period of history is more than just rhyming…

Mr. Trump is an unlikely Moses, let alone Milei

The best case is a boom. Like the one set off by Ronald Reagan in 1980. But if there’s a best case, there’s also a worst case. Today, we begin looking for it.

Did China just sink offshore wind forever?

The latest cables to fall victim are Baltic links between Finland, Germany, Lithuania and Sweden. Again, a Chinese vessel is at the centre of the story.

When Trump’s Golden Age will get badly tarnished

Nobody knows the future. We bet on the patterns of history — in politics and markets. Those patterns suggest that The Donald will face long odds.

Is Elon Musk America’s Javier Milei?

The only thing that can save Western governments from a major debt crisis is dramatic spending cuts. But those are politically impossible… right?

UK goes to the left as the world goes to the right

What if Trump is just the beginning? A series of elections are set to take place in 2025. And they could leave Sir Keir Starmer marooned on a leftist island.

The Primary Political Trend

Big Government was triumphant. And Big Government means big spending, big budgets, big deficits, big debt... and knucklehead, big-shot delusions.

Yes, John called it!

Our investment director John Butler is on the record as having predicted a sizeable Trump victory. Not only has Trump won by a huge margin; he appears to have held the Republican House majority and even to have flipped the Senate. What might this mean for the financial markets? In this interview, John offers some insights.

What the BRICS are really up to

The BRICS sound like the original United States – a confederation of independent, sovereign states, rather than the more modern version of the centralised US.

Prepare to be electoral collateral damage

Donald Trump’s odds of winning the US presidential election have soared in recent days. But what’s behind the move? And should UK investors care?