Geopolitics

A US recession has begun

In today’s issue: The US may already be in recession Trump’s policy set may make it worse The UK is at even greater risk It’s…

A time for choosing

Transatlantic disputes in trade and defence have escalated dramatically of late. Time is running out for Britain to find a way to leverage the “special relationship” with the US in a way that serves its national interest.

More admirals than ships?

Following decades of downsizing, the Royal Navy now has more admirals than ships. This is just one example of Europe’s broader shortfall in military capability. But that may now be changing. Investors should take note.

If the ship is sinking, it doesn’t matter who is the captain

In today’s issue: DOGE dodges the real issues Trump offers a new colour of the carpet, not new policy The ship is sinking and politicians…

It took inflation at 3,700% to stop the bloodsuckers on the Pampas

The leech doesn’t stop sucking just because the host joins a health club; it only stops when it has to stop... after the host dies. That’s when you get a New Era.

Net zero is dead. Long live what instead?

2024 was the year it became politically acceptable to doubt net zero. But what will replace renewable energy now that we’ve stopped pretending it’s viable?

Musk and Ramaswamy will be swinging from the trees in the DC swamp

Watch how the nearly immovable, blockish ballast in Trump’s Big Spending brain collides with the almost-unstoppable energy of the expense cutting dynamic duo.

2025: The Year of the Chainsaw?

Last year Britain lurched to the left while much of Europe and North American did the opposite. But nowhere is the contrast with Britain greater than in Argentina, which has leapt from bureaucratic basket-case to capitalist dynamo during President Milei’s first year in power.

If it’s darkest before dawn, is it time to be optimistic?

Europe is in outright political chaos. But perhaps this just heralds change for the better? Is it time for investors to get optimistic about our future?

Only a crisis can save us now

In France, the voters turned against Macron. In Germany, they turned against the centrist Social Democrats. In the UK, both centre parties are in trouble.

Will Norway pull the plug on the UK?

Sweden and Norway pursued sensible energy policy. Unfortunately, they hooked their grid up to Germany and the UK. Now they’re paying the price, literally.

The biggest turnaround story since the Soviet Union disbanded

Some investors see in Argentina the kind of boom that took place in Eastern Europe after it was freed from the Soviet Union in 1991... or China in 1979.

How Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng will assassinate President Trump

President Trump had better watch his back. The same elite group of puppet masters that controlled financial markets for decades have diversified into politics.

Our predictions for a wayward 2025

It’s the time of year to start thinking about your New Year’s resolutions… and why they’ll fail. It’s no different for investing. What will 2025 bring?

God, climate change and the deficit on Thanksgiving

We had spent the day before Thanksgiving splitting firewood. All day, we loaded the logs — oak, locust, cherry, and poplar — onto the splitter. Once split, the fire logs were stacked in the barn.

Will the BRICS put up with more abuse, or divorce the dollar?

Each financial boom and bust sears a new piece of obscure finance jargon into our memory. And in 2025, we’ll be adding a new one to that list: BRICS.

Ten years of wars and inflation

On Friday 22 November, US debt hit a new record – $36 trillion. There was also this little news item last week – Reuters: “Putin says Ukraine war is going global”.

World Opium War III has begun

In today’s issue: Why did Trump justify tariffs with fentanyl? What is Opium War III? A dark period of history is more than just rhyming…

Mr. Trump is an unlikely Moses, let alone Milei

The best case is a boom. Like the one set off by Ronald Reagan in 1980. But if there’s a best case, there’s also a worst case. Today, we begin looking for it.

Did China just sink offshore wind forever?

The latest cables to fall victim are Baltic links between Finland, Germany, Lithuania and Sweden. Again, a Chinese vessel is at the centre of the story.